On August 28 local time, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a settled administrative order against Gabriel Perez, who worked at the White House as a presidential technology aide operating the teleprompter, on charges of trading event contracts using non-public speech information. According to the CFTC order, Perez traded in 14 markets (mention markets) that predicted whether President Donald Trump would say particular words or phrases in his speeches, from December 2025 through March 2026. He profited on 39 of the 43 contracts he traded, earning a total of $107,539.02. The CFTC ordered full disgorgement of the ill-gotten gains along with a civil monetary penalty of $65,000. The total payment amount is $172,539.02. Perez was also barred from trading on CFTC-registered entities for the next three years. The CFTC reduced the civil penalty by roughly 40% to reflect Perez's cooperation with the investigation. Perez settled the matter without admitting or denying the findings of fact and conclusions of law set out in the order. This action is a CFTC administrative order based on a settlement between the parties, not a court ruling that uniformly establishes the legal character of all event contracts.
Traded Event Contracts on Undisclosed White House Speech Material: CFTC Orders $172,539 in Disgorgement and Penalty
Metanomia View
Prediction markets compress public information into a price, but they are not a mechanism that puts those who gain earlier access to non-public information on a fair footing. If Korea is to discuss introducing a domestic prediction market, it must first design trading restrictions for public officials, political parties, broadcasters, and platform personnel who can access the relevant non-public information, along with records of information access and standards for clawing back gains from violations. The prior question is not the market's predictive accuracy but who creates the questions, who adjudicates the outcomes, and who controls the non-public information.
Sources
- ORDER INSTITUTING PROCEEDINGS PURSUANT TO SECTION 6(c) AND (d) OF THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT, MAKING FINDINGS, AND IMPOSING REMEDIAL SANCTIONS
- CFTC Orders Gabriel Perez to Pay $172,000 for Insider Trading of Mention Market Event Contracts
- Former White House teleprompter operator ordered to turn over profits, pay fine over insider trading